This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite contests to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest money game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and when we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a solid floor there also and it doesn’t matter whether she wins or loses. At the cost she allows you to cover up for some heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other spots to win using a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most likely outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at least one 10-point dip down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you’re already at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that’s more than enough to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can’t have a lot of time at the game left. I believe we function together with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. I also believe he is a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of both but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we’ve got a good floor here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands several takedowns in this battle and can win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes in a 57% precision, and if he is getting pieced up on the toes I’m sure he is going to be going for much greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and I believe he has a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t believe she could win, since she for certain could, and I believe she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we would need a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I believe that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to count all her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points and that has been contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much greater pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still would not be enough here to put her at the winning lineup at her 8.7k price label. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and also provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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