This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we ought to have a big edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these titles they have never heard and will just be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I will be chasing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card this Sunday and I think we’ll see a good deal of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I believe I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it in my money games and lock in those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we could see multiple knockdowns as well which would help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two guys. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, then we just need to find another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP play of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a win. He’s got a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up progress points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his profession and even when he’s winning on the toes, he still shoots in for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will gradually go to it himself and it will cost him. I think we could observe a 1st round entry here and that should easily get the 10x+ we’re looking for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he will easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down from the past couple of years but I believe he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you need some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my picks being correct and I can hit the ideal combo. It’s tough to choose one favourite fade this week however I will select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he will use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. However, he does not chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and I don’t see him getting a submission. But I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my select prediction for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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